Month: March 2020

Changdian Technology (600584): Performance Forecast Turns Losses and Expects 20 Years of Profit Reversal

Changdian Technology (600584): Performance Forecast Turns Losses and Expects 20 Years of Profit Reversal
Brief evaluation of performance The company’s estimated net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 is 82 million to 98 million yuan, of which the net profit attributable to mothers after replacing non-recurring gains and losses is -7.600 million to -9.2 trillion, the forecast is in line with expectations.In the same period of 2018, net profit attributable to mothers was -9.400 million, of which net profit after deducting non-attribution is -13.200000000. Investment logic Investment income promotes the company to successfully reverse its losses: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in Q4 will be 2.63 ppm-2.7.9 billion yuan, of which net profit after deduction to non-mother is -3.800 million to -5.400000000.The company’s non-recurring income in 2019 is 8.5 ppm-10.100 million US dollars, in which the subsidiary Xingke Jinpeng invested in intangible assets of Changdian Integrated Circuits (Shaoxing) Co., Ltd. in the investment income in Q4.700 million, is the first increase in non-recurring benefits.We expect the impairment of goodwill and fair value changes due to the compensation for Taiwan Starco ‘s minimum purchase commitments are the important reasons for the negative non-net profit deduction in the fourth quarter. Strengthen the headquarters and be optimistic about the gradual integration of Xingke Jinpeng: According to the company’s announcement, it is planned to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary in Shanghai to transfer core functions of the headquarters such as finance, sales, research and development to Shanghai.We believe that after the semi-annual adjustment in the second 杭州夜网论坛 half of 2019, the company is accelerating the integration of Xingke Jinpeng.The scale of the Shanghai subsidiary’s headquarters covers the domestic branches of Changdian Technology and Xingke Jinpeng’s domestic and foreign institutions. Through the strengthening of the headquarters layout, the integration measures will be implemented more effectively. We expect Xingke Jinpeng to reduce losses in 2020. In view of the expansion of the key customers in the display industry, the packaging and testing leader is expected to benefit significantly: the company plans to invest in 202014.3 ppm to expand production capacity for key customers.We believe that the packaging and testing industry is expected to maintain a high boom in 2020, driven by downstream demand such as 5G, servers and storage.In terms of large customers, we believe that the company’s Korean plant is expected to benefit from customer AiP-SiP and UWB demand, and domestic is expected to benefit from the transfer of Hisilicon orders to China. Investment suggestion The company ‘s progress towards the “big headquarters” is slightly higher than expected, and it will benefit from the industry ‘s high business climate and Xingke Jinpeng ‘s loss reduction. We raise our forecast for 2019-2021 to return to its net profit to 87 million (maintained).200 million (+ 27%) and 9.700 million (+ 18%), raise target price to 31 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: Sino-US trade friction; industry capacity expansion is too fast; Xingke Jinpeng integration is less than expected; TSMC / Intel develops advanced packaging

Tongfu Microelectronics (002156): 3Q Performance Exceeds Expectation of Domestic Alternatives and AMD Continues to Drive Growth and Maintain Outperform Industry

Tongfu Microelectronics (002156): 3Q Performance Exceeds Expectation of Domestic Alternatives and AMD Continues to Drive Growth and Maintain 天津夜网 Outperform Industry
The 3Q19 results exceeded our expectations. Tongfu Microelectronics announced the 3Q19 results: the company achieved operating income of 24 in 3Q19.7 ppm, an annual increase of 23%, exceeding the rate of increase 2Q to 18.1ppts; net profit attributable to mothers 5,031 million, although showing a 16% time interval, but only 2Q19 reduced by 2,045 million US dollars to turn losses, placed in the middle of the progressive forecast of 38,885-5,976,000 yuan, the net income of revenue exceeded usIt is expected that it will be mainly affected by the acceleration of domestic substitution in the packaging and testing industry and the steady order of AMD. Development Trends Domestic demand for substitution has driven the company’s performance to rebound rapidly.Under the consolidated statement caliber, the company’s 3Q19 revenue increased by 28% month-on-month, and gross profit margin increased by 3.8ppts, about 2Q continues to improve.Under the caliber of the parent company, in the third quarter of 19th, Tongfu Microelectronics’ parent company realized operating income.50,000 yuan (vs. Revenue for the second quarter of 19 8.50,000 yuan), net profit 46.97 million yuan (vs. 186 million in 2Q19), the operating situation has changed significantly.As the customers of the Chongchuan plant are mainly domestic chip design manufacturers, we believe that the company’s good performance in 3Q comes from strong domestic substitution demand, and this structural change promotes sustainability and drives the company’s performance growth. The order situation of AMD is still solid, and the demand of Sutong / Hefei plants is slightly weak.According to our industry chain research, the current order of AMD 7nm products in the two factories of Thomson Suzhou and Penang is in good condition. The 7nm server CPU and 7nm GPU are gradually increasing. We expect that from 4Q on, the wealth of AMD’s AMD related products will continue to increase month-on-month.We believe that under the single quarter consolidated statement of the third quarter, the net profit of the external operating entities of the parent company is relatively low because Nantong Tongfu and Hefei Tongfu are affected by the following factors, insufficient capacity utilization and continuous consumption: 1) MediaTekThe downstream demand of such overseas customers is still in the period of conversion of old and new kinetic energy; 2) Some products of the Hefei plant are still in the introduction stage, and the volume of income is rarely difficult to cover fixed costs. The volume of 7nm products will continue to be good for the company’s performance. We raise our 2019/2020 revenue forecast by 7% / 2% to 84.9 ppm / 106.3 trillion, raised 2019/2020 net profit forecast by 45% / 2% to 1,200 million / 3.400000000.The company’s current consensus corresponds to 20202.0 times PBR, considering that the industry is gradually coming out of the bottom, we raise the company’s estimated PBR ratio in 2020 to 2.3x, corresponding to a target price increase of 29% to 13.50 yuan (23% upside). The localization and substitution of the risk packaging and testing industry failed to meet expectations; the macro economy declined.

Guiyang Bank (601997) 3 Quarterly Report Explained: Marginal Improvement of Asset Quality Obviously Pays Attention to Its Sedimentary Pressure

Guiyang Bank (601997) 3 Quarterly Report Explained: Marginal Improvement of Asset Quality Obviously Pays Attention to Its Sedimentary Pressure
Highlights of the quarterly report: 1. High performance growth.Revenue and PPOP have expanded at a low base. Among them, PPOP has achieved a growth rate of 20% per second, which is the best growth rate since the end of 2017.At the same time, the company increased its provision in the third quarter, and the net profit growth rate remained at a relatively stable growth rate of 15%. 2. The improvement in interest margin from the previous quarter led to a 21% increase in net interest income.The interest margin increased by 39bp to 2 from the previous quarter.48%, mainly because the asset-side benefit structure is optimized to increase the yield, and at the same time, the debt-side interest rate also has a small positive 北京夜网 contribution to the interest margin.3. The asset structure continued to be optimized.Although the loan growth rate has been replaced, the proportion of some loans has steadily increased.4. Marginal optimization of asset quality has improved significantly.The NPL ratio was down on a month-on-month basis. At the same time, under the background of increased write-offs in 3 quarters, the net annual generation of single-year non-performing NAD was also down on a month-on-month basis.In the future, the margin of adverse pressure will improve, and the ability to resist risks will be further consolidated. Insufficient quarterly reports: 1. The growth rate of deposits was weaker than the previous quarter, and the degree of current account contraction decreased. Revenue and PPOP have expanded at a low base. Among them, PPOP has achieved a 南京夜网 growth rate of 20% per second, which is the best growth rate since the end of 2017.At the same time, the company increased its provision in the third quarter, and its net profit growth remained relatively stable.19Q1-3Q19 revenue, PPOP, net profit attributable to mother or growth rate were 9 respectively.3% / 12.0% / 18.6%, 7.0% / 11.0% / 20.1%, 12.4% / 16.5% / 15.3%. Investment suggestion: company 19E 20E PB 0.85X / 0.73X; PE 5.04X / 4.49X (City Commercial Bank PB 1.02X / 0.91X; PE 8.79X / 7.82X), Guiyang Bank’s performance maintained a high growth, the asset structure was optimized and adjusted, and the marginal improvement in asset quality was obvious. Investors are advised to pay attention. Risk warning: the macro economy is facing downward pressure, the company’s deposit competition is under pressure, and performance management is less than expected.

Yangnong Chemical (600486) in-depth report: recalling the glorious four due to resonance and looking forward to the future grand exhibition

Yangnong Chemical (600486) in-depth report: recalling the glorious four due to resonance and looking forward to the future grand exhibition

The main points of the report go back: the benchmark companies in the pesticide industry are the largest enterprises in the domestic biomimetic pesticide industry, and 杭州桑拿 they are mainly engaged in pesticides, herbicides and fungicides.

From the company’s listing in 2002 to the end of 2018, the compound annual growth rates of revenue and performance were 19 respectively.

6% vs. 25.

3% since listing (2019.

4.

25) The former restoration of power continued to achieve 1136.

4% growth, annualized return rate reached 15.

9%.

By comparing the compound growth rate of SW pesticide companies since their listing, the average ROE and other indicators can be found that the companies are in the leading position in the industry.

Analysis: R & D logging, strategic review of the company’s historical profile, key events, and performance growth can be found. The core driving force for the company’s rapid development comes from high investment in research and development, strategic choice of key points in time, and integration from the industrial chain.The four major factors of integration and transformation of the park into the park and the accumulation of safety and environmental protection are synergistic resonance.

In terms of research and development, the company’s research and development expansion has led the industry for a long time, and a variety of product technologies have reached advanced levels at home and abroad. It has been transformed into the four categories of pesticides, herbicides, fungicides, and plant growth regulators.

In terms of strategy, the company’s three large-scale capital investments in 2008, 2014, and 2016, which did not miss the opportunity, have successfully brought rapid performance improvement to the company.

In terms of the construction of the park, the company has gradually developed from the integration of the industrial chain to the integration of the park after years of development. At present, the company is vigorously building a company that is aligned with mature chemical parks abroad.

In terms of safety and environmental protection, the company has achieved major breakthroughs through the continuous upgrade of safety and environmental protection construction to ensure the company’s long-term development.

Prospects: Hengqiang, the strongest company, and the company went up to the next level. The event of “a stone stirs up thousands of waves”, Yancheng decided to shut down the Xiangshui Chemical Park.

Domestic safety and environmental protection are expected to tighten, and Jiangsu ‘s pesticide output will be relatively high, and the waves will scour in the sand. It is expected that the supply side of the industry has the potential to create, while the safety and environmental protection standards and the integration advantages of leading cities will increase.

The company will benefit significantly as a pesticide leader with significant comprehensive advantages.

At the same time, the company is / planning to construct the third and fourth phase of Nantong Youjia Pesticide Project to increase the scale of production capacity and enrich the pesticide category. It plans to outsource the acquisition of Sinochem International’s related assets, Baoye’s equity, and multilateral efforts to promote development.

Investment suggestion: Maintain the “Buy” rating back in the past, the company ‘s high investment in research and development, strategic choices at key points in time, from the integration of the industrial chain to the integration and upgrading of the park, and the accumulation of safety and environmental protection layout.Growth; Looking forward to the future, the company will take advantage of the trend of agglomeration of safety and environmental protection industries to transfer the development and changes of the rapid construction of new projects, as well as the planned outbound mergers and acquisitions of Sinochem International Assets and Baoye’s equity, and move towards a new stage of development.

The company’s EPS is expected to be 3 in 2019-2021.

43 yuan, 4.

04 yuan, 4.

65 yuan.

Risk Warning: 1.

The company’s project construction was less than expected; 2.

Significant changes have taken place in environmental regulatory policies.

Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway (600377): 4Q18 deducted non-performance lower than expected local highway main business and dividend growth steadily

Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway (600377): 4Q18 deducted non-performance lower than expected local highway main business and dividend growth steadily

In the fourth quarter of 2018, non-performance deductions are expected. Ninghu Expressway’s 4Q revenue is 23 trillion, which is 6% in ten years. Net profit attributable to mothers is 7 trillion (EPS0.

14 yuan), the previous + 5%, non-net profit more than -4%, more than expected, mainly due to roads affected by weather than expected growth, oil revenue increased -34%.

Initial revenue was 99.

700 million US dollars, one year + 5%; net profit attributable to mothers is 4.4 billion US dollars, one year + 22%; if the acquisition of Hanwei brings 4.
.

300 million USD one-time income, recurring net profit + 8% per year.

Plan dividends of 0.

46 yuan / share, dividend payout ratio is 53%, A / H corresponds to 4.

6% / 4.

5% 18-year dividend yield.

The initial profit growth mainly comes from: 1) Toll roads: every 6% increase in vehicle traffic (endogenous growth of 7%), revenue of $ 7.5 billion, an annual increase of 5%, and a gross profit margin of 3ppt.

Among them, the annual traffic flow / income of the core road-production Shanghai-Nanjing line exceeds + 5% / 4%, and the gross profit margin drops by 3ppt.

2) Highway supporting: revenue of 1.4 billion US dollars, -19% per year, of which oil sales revenue decreased by 22%, mainly due to gas station construction and other changes in sales volume, but gross profit margin increased by 6ppt, service area rental income increased by 35%.

3) Property: income of 100,000 yuan, net profit1.

500 million, ten years + 40%, profit margin 15%.

Trend 1Q19 performance may be negative growth.

Highway: In January, the traffic volume of road production increased by 37%. The high growth rate was mainly due to ① the increase in passenger traffic in January in the spring of 19, and ② a low base in the southern snowstorm in January 2018; the traffic volume in February is expected to decline significantly;%.
Property: 1Q18 confirmed 7.

400 million income, 杭州夜网论坛 about 1.

200 million net profit.

The 19-year property project has sufficient reserves, and it is expected that the increase in revenue will remain flat, but the timing of revenue recognition is uncertain. Conservative estimates are not confirmed in 1Q. It is expected that non-net profit deducted in 1Q19 can increase by about 3%.

Long-term Wufeng Mountain Bridge may significantly increase the company’s profits.

The Wufeng Mountain Bridge will open to traffic in 2020, and it is expected that the profit and loss will be balanced one year after opening, and the capital is IRR10.

7%.

After the bridge is opened, it may drive the traffic flow of Zhendan Highway and other roads, which can also alleviate the congestion in the east of the Nanjing-Shanghai line to a certain extent.

Earnings Forecast As the profitability of the oil product sales and service area may be less than expected, we lower our 2019e earnings forecast by 0.

The 87 yuan is reduced by 4% to 0.

84 yuan (without calibre + 7% YoY); date 2020e profit forecast 0.

89 yuan (+ 6% year-on-year).

The estimates correspond to the proposed current A / H estimates.

9/11.

9x 2019 P / E ratio, 4.

8% / 4.

8% 2019 dividend yield.

Since 2010, A / H shares have underperformed the market only in 2014, and gradually outperformed the market at 147 / 166ppt in 9 years.

Maintain A / H recommendation level and target price.

49 RMB / 12.

HKD 47, corresponding to December 2019.
8/13.
1x price-earnings ratio, 15% / 10% space.

The growth of risk traffic flow was lower than expected, and the construction progress of Wufengshan Bridge was lower than expected.

Cargo-based yields down, substitute short-term bond funds issued intensive

Cargo-based yields down, “substitute” short-term bond funds issued intensive
Source: 21st Century Business Herald Original title: Where is the cargo-based yield going?The “substitute” short-term debt fund intensive issue of A shares around 2800 points continues to fluctuate. The “domestic and foreign difficulties” market environment continues to reduce investor risk. Low-risk investment varieties have once again become the focus of market attention.  However, under the easing of liquidity, the 7-year annualized rate of return of the preferred monetary fund for stable financial management continued to decline at the same time.Among them, the most expected Tianhong Yingbao’s latest 7-day annualized yield has been as low as 2.2870%, a historical low.  Where should the money go?In order to meet the needs of low-risk expected funds, public offerings will focus on short-term and medium-term debt funds.The positioning of this type of product is to benchmark currency funds and bank wealth management. From a practical point of view, there is indeed a large amount of institutional funds pursuing such products.  Eleven short-term and short-term debt funds are issued. From the perspective of the fund issuance market, public fundraising has been quite active in the short-term and short-term bond funds.  Statistics show that among the funds currently being issued, there are 11 products with investment types defined as short-term pure debt funds (combined statistics of different shares), respectively from Xinhua, Pengyang, Haifutong, Xingyin, and Invesco Great Wall.Waiting for 10 fund companies, of which Xinhua has two medium- and short-term debt funds issued at the same time.  An official from Invesco Great Wall said, “After the implementation of the new rules on asset management, the development of money funds and wealth management funds has shifted, but only institutional investors or individual investors have reduced demand for high liquidity and low risk products.Pure bond funds are expected to meet this part of overlapping demand.”Before that, there were more than 70 short-term pure bond funds that have been issued and established since this year (different divisions are counted separately), and the total issue size has exceeded $ 34.1 billion.Among them, the three funds with the largest combined issuance scales are rich country short bonds, Zhongtai Lanyue short bonds and Caitong Asset Management Hongyun short bonds, with the initial issuing amounts of 41.1.1 billion, 40.1.1 billion and 36.8.7 billion.  In addition to the layout of new products, the continuous marketing of existing short-term debt funds has also become a focus of public offerings.Many public fundraisers pointed out that under the downward trend in yields, how to retain cargo-based users has become one of the challenges facing the company, and as a short-term debt fund for standard-based products, it has become an effective way.  ”Now the approval of short-term and middle-term debt funds is obviously slower. In this case, the layout of existing products is very important.” On August 13, a person in charge of a public placement and solid income department in South China told reporters.Compared with the company’s short-term debt fund, its scale expansion is very obvious.A short-debt product that I personally managed was billions in size when it was founded, and now has billions in scale.”From the perspective of improving product liquidity, we can also see the decision of the public offering to regard short-term and medium-term debt funds as alternatives to currency funds.According to the reporter’s understanding, in the past, short-term and short-term debt funds often used the “T + 3” redemption mechanism.Distribution, some products currently being released adopt this account-receiving model.The Air Force and Ping An’s short-term debt funds have also adjusted their purchase and redemption operations.  The person in charge of the upcoming Fixed Income Department pointed out, “Now the demand for short and medium-term debt funds by institutional funds is still relatively strong. Such products have always been the focus of our fixed income business line. The continuous marketing of such products is also worth improving.Work one.”The income is significantly ahead of the preference of cargo-based institutions for short-term debt funds because it does have a certain advantage over cargo-based funds in terms of yield.  According to statistics, as of August 12, except for funds established during the year, short-term pure debt funds that can record annual income this year have reached an average yield of 2 this year.75%, while the average return of money market funds increased by 1.59%.  A bond fund manager in Shenzhen analyzed to reporters, “Small and medium-term debt funds are a division of pure debt funds. In terms of currency funds, they can invest in bonds of 1-3 years, while currency funds mainly invest 3-6 months. Therefore, in terms of coupon or holding period, the yield curve of short-term debt funds is higher than that of money funds, and it can maintain a certain liquidity.At the same time, when monetary policy is relatively loose, short-term debt funds can use the scale of the leverage ratio to obtain the spread between the bond coupon and the cost of funds.”Specifically, from the perspective of a single fund, the short- and medium-term debt fund with the highest yield during the year is the medium and short-term 苏州夜网论坛 interest rate A of Sino-Kovotwaan, and its yield is as high as 7.7%; on average, Ping An ‘s short- and medium-term debts are shared by C, and the annual returns of A shares are 3 respectively.81% and 3.61%, SDIC UBS Hengze short-term debt A has a return of 3 in a year.34%, leading the increase.Under the ranking, the money fund with the highest yield during the year yielded only 2.1%.  From the perspective of the short-term and medium-term debt funds established this year, the outstanding performance is Chuangjinxinxin Daily Short-term Bond A / C, and Ping An Ruyi Medium-term Short Bond A / C / E.Among them, the Ping An Ruyi short-term debt stocks, which were established only in April this year, have yielded 2 years.About 5%.  A Ping An Fund related person pointed out to reporters that “the risk of medium and short duration interest 杭州夜网 rate debt is relatively controllable and its volatility is smaller than that of medium and long duration varieties.In addition, taking into account the continued easing of the capital, there is a relatively stable margin between the interest rate of the funds and the short- and medium-term bond yields. You can take full advantage of the operation to seize the opportunities of market arbitrage strategies.”Different scales have become increasingly prominent and even fund companies have made significant contributions to short- and medium-term debt funds, but by increasing the number of homogenized products, scale differentiation has been overcome.  From the perspective of the scale of newly issued short-term and medium-term debt funds during the year, while some companies are attracting a lot of money, there are also a large number of short-term and medium-term debt funds issued by companies with initial launch sizes ranging from 200 million to 300 million.Among them, a short- and medium-term debt product issued by a Shenzhen fund company encountered a liquidation crisis within a few months of its establishment.  The fund was established on March 19 this year with a starting size of 2.USD 5.8 billion, but the end of the second quarter, the scale is only 0.300 million yuan.On August 7, the fund issued an announcement saying that as of August 5, its net asset value of the fund had been lower than 50 million yuan for 55 consecutive working days. If the fund overlaps for 60 consecutive working days, the fund will automatically terminate.  However, on August 12, the fund re-announced its contract termination announcement, which means it has passed the liquidation crisis.According to the reporter’s understanding, this benefited from the fact that the fund had previously regained a large purchase, and the scale had returned to more than 50 million.  ”The scale of short- and medium-term debt funds should become more and more obvious.” On August 13, a senior solid income source in Beijing said, “This is not only related to the performance of the fund itself, but also to the strength of the fund company in terms of solid income.”related.Because the size of individual funds may change due to short-term performance, and good performance may encounter redemption, poor performance may also encounter redemption, but from the overall development of the company, if the strength in the bond investment field is leading, its overallProduct scale will continue to break through.”

Tongwei (600438) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments: Consolidating Cost Advantages Fully Released Capacity in 2019

Tongwei (600438) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments: Consolidating Cost Advantages Fully Released Capacity in 2019
This report reads: Tongwei Co., Ltd., relying on the leading cost advantage of silicon materials and cells, actively expands production capacity and increases market share. In 2019, it will fully enjoy the profit growth brought by the release of capacity and maintain an “overweight” rating. Investment Highlights: Maintain “Overweight” rating.Increase EPS forecast for 2019-20 to 0.78 (+0.01) / 1.00 (+0.08) Yuan, plus EPS1 in 2021.The forecast of 21 yuan, the 合肥夜网 reason for raising the profit forecast is that we are more confident in the profitability of the battery change, and raised the target price to 19.50 yuan (+7.95), corresponding to 25 times PE in 2019, the increase is mainly due to the upward adjustment of the estimated center of the photovoltaic sector. Tongwei disclosed the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report. In 2018, it realized revenue of 27.5 billion yuan and net profit of 2 billion yuan. In the first quarter of 2019, it realized revenue of 6.2 billion yuan and net profit4.9.1 billion. The 2018 annual report and 2019 Q1 results are in line with expectations.Sales of silicon materials in 2018.92 For the first time, Yongxiang achieved a profit of 5.1.6 billion; battery chip sales 6.4GW, realized profit 8.42 megabytes, with a total net profit of about 15 重庆耍耍网 megabytes expected for other photovoltaic sectors; the agricultural sector contributes about 5 megabytes of net profit, for a total of 20 megabytes.It is expected that in the first quarter of 2019, it will be expanded to 9,000 tons, and Yongxiang will achieve a profit of about 100 million; battery chips will achieve a profit of about 400 million, and a small amount of investment in agriculture. Consolidate the cost advantage, and start to enter the stage of the full release of production profit in 2019.The four major Tongwei projects will enter the stage of full capacity release in 2019, forming 8 silicon silicon raw material capacity + 12GW cell capacity, and the overall profit level will reach a new level.It is expected that by 2019, silicon materials will reach the expected maximum of 7 (5 inches is replaced by new capacity cost), and the cell displacement is expected to exceed 12GW (of which all the single crystals have significant profitability per PERC capacity), while expanding and expanding 8GW cell capacity.At present, Tongwei has a significant cost advantage. In the field of silicon materials, the old production capacity has reached 5 and the production cost has reached 5.5 million / ton; non-silicon cost of the cell is about 0.25 yuan / w.At present, the price of silicon materials has bottomed out, and it is expected to rebound slightly. The battery chip connection will obtain excess benefits based on efficiency and cost advantages. risk warning.The photovoltaic industry has risks such as exchange rate changes and overseas trade protection.

Industrial Fulian (601138) Investment Value Analysis Report-Manufacturing giant leads the wave of industrial interconnection 5G + cloud core benefits target

Industrial Fulian (601138) Investment Value Analysis Report-Manufacturing giant leads the wave of industrial interconnection 5G + cloud core benefits target

The company is a global electronics manufacturing and industrial Internet giant, actively transforming from traditional electronics manufacturing to industrial Internet intelligent manufacturing services, with huge growth potential.

It is expected to fully benefit from the 5G + cloudification trend in the future.

We predict that the company’s EPS for 2019-21 will be 0.

90/1.

00/1.

15 yuan, corresponding PE is 18x / 16x / 14x.

Covered for the first time, giving “overweight” rating.

After going through the storms, it has become a global leader in electronics manufacturing.

The company is the world’s largest electronics industry technology manufacturing service provider, and actively explores in the industrial Internet field.

In recent years, the company’s revenue has presented a growing trend. In 2018, the main business products of communication network equipment / cloud service equipment increased by 20 respectively.

82% / 27.

27%.

At present, the company has its own industrial cloud, 5 unmanned factories, 10 light-off production lines; intelligent and automated production ranks in the leading position in the industry.

The company is the core beneficiary of 5G and cloudification.

The commercialization of 5G networks in 2019 has driven capital spending in the communications industry and stimulated demand for related equipment products.

According to OVUM’s forecast, through the expansion of the scale of 5G construction, the capital expansion of global operators will return to growth, reaching 203.5 billion US dollars in 2022.

The company’s 5G CPE has achieved mass production migration, 5G universal modules, and 5G small base stations have all received orders from core customers.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s cloud service equipment increased by 15%, and it increased against the trend due to the overall fluctuation of the industry.

We believe that the industry’s prosperity is gradually recovering, and the company’s cloud service equipment business will continue to maintain rapid growth next year.

According to the IDC report, 5G smartphone expansion will account for 8% of total smartphone shipments in 2020.
.

9%, reaching 1.

23.5 billion units.

The development of 5G will also bring a wave of smartphone replacements, and the company’s mobile phone component business will benefit.

The pioneer of the industrial Internet platform, the integration of software and hardware creates a new industry ecology.

According to estimates by experts from the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the size of the domestic industrial Internet in 2018 is about 5,313 trillion, and it will reach one trillion in 2023.

Foxconn’s accumulated technology and experience for many years has changed the pattern of advanced manufacturing in the world. The transformation of the Industrial Internet is the inevitable development of Foxconn for 30 years.

Foxconn has used the “fog cerebellum + Foxconn industrial cloud platform + professional cloud” to create an industrial Internet platform with all elements, the entire industry chain and the entire value chain.

We are optimistic that in the next five to ten years, Foxconn Group will successfully transition to the ecological model of “smart manufacturing + industrial Internet 杭州桑拿 platform”.

Risk factors: market fluctuation risk of downstream products; exchange rate fluctuation risk; associated transaction risk.

Investment suggestion: As a leading company in the electronics manufacturing industry, the company responds to technological development trends, actively transforms itself into an industrial Internet company, and gradually starts a new business growth engine. We predict that the company’s EPS in 2019-21 will be 0.

90/1.

00/1.

15 yuan, corresponding to a forecast of 178 net profit in 2019-21.

57/198.

254/227.

98 million, corresponding to 18x / 16x / 14x PE in 2019-21.

Covered for the first time, giving “overweight” rating.

Zhongju Hi-tech (600872) Company Research: Steady Growth of Main Business, Incentive Reform, Stimulation

Zhongju Hi-tech (600872) Company Research: Steady Growth of Main Business, Incentive Reform, Stimulation

Specific events.

The company disclosed its semi-annual report for 2019.

19H1 company achieved revenue of 23.

92 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

03%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

66 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

99%.

Of which Q2 revenue was 11.

61 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.

78%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

77 ppm,南京桑拿网 an increase of 4 per year.

43%.

  The condiment business maintained a steady growth momentum and the product structure continued to be optimized.

1) The soy sauce business is growing steadily, and the growth rate of fuel-consuming cooking wine is dazzling.

The delicious fresh subsidiary achieved revenue of 22 in 19H1.

6.2 billion, with a previous appreciation of 15.

26%, net profit attributable to mother 3.

62 trillion, an increase of 20 in ten years.

05%.

Among them, the main proportion of soy sauce (65.

4%) and chicken powder (12.

0%) stable growth, increased by 10 respectively.

44%, 19.

32%.

The product structure is becoming more and more diversified. The growth rate of oyster sauce and cooking wine has achieved a rapid growth of over 60%.

The company has completed a new upgrade of light salt, small naughty low-salt soy sauce and seafood, and steamed fish flavor soy sauce. At the same time, the proportion of oyster sauce, cooking wine, rice vinegar, sauces and other products has gradually increased, and the product structure has been further enriched.

2) Non-main business growth was under pressure due to the high base in the same period last year.

The company achieved revenue of 23 in 19H1.

The total growth rate was US $ 9.2 billion, which was slower than that of the condiment business. First, the company’s headquarters sold an asset in 18H1 to achieve revenue1.

1.3 billion, a high base caused the growth of other business in 19H1 to prolong significantly.

  The optimization of incentive delivery methods needs to be accumulated.

The company optimized the incentive mechanism from the three aspects of evaluation indicators, bonus distribution and excess rewards: 1) Adjusted the weight of revenue, net profit and return on net assets from 2: 6: 2 to 4: 4: 2, increasedIncome indicator weight; 2) In the bonus distribution, it is shifted from the original tilt to senior management to the middle-level business backbone; 3) According to the indicator completion, the completion rate reaches 1.

1x and 1.

In the case of 2 times, 15% and 25% of the excess of the net profit of the mother will be drawn into the bonus package.

We believe that in the long run, the release of incentive costs is conducive to stimulating the vitality of employees and trying to store energy for the company’s long-term development.

  Catering channels continue to increase, and national development is expected.

1) The nationwide channel layout is advancing steadily.

The company actively promotes the channel planning strategy of “steadily developing the southeast coast, focusing on enhancing the northeast and northeast, accelerating the development of the southwestern region, and gradually developing the northwestern market” channel strategy, achieving the midwest (+23) in the second quarter of 1919.18%) and North (+22.

27%) rapid revenue growth, eastern and southern revenue increased steadily 11.
.

48%, 12.

48%.

In 19H1, 111 dealers were added, and 15 blank prefecture-level cities were developed to cover 81% of prefecture-level cities nationwide, an increase of 4pct earlier.

2) The proportion of catering channels is constantly improving.

The company stepped up its promotion of catering channels, and sales of catering products increased by 41 in the same period in 19H1.

49%, far higher than the increase in overall sales.

As of 18 years, the company’s household consumption channels accounted for 75%, which was about 5 pct lower in the earlier 17 years. We expect that the future of the restaurant channels will continue to increase the company’s steady development.

  Investment Advice.

Maintaining a “Buy” rating, we expect the company’s net profit attributable to its mothers to be 7 in 19-21.

3/9.

4/11.

70,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS0.

92/1.

17/1.

47 yuan, corresponding to PE43 / 33/27 times of 19-21 years.

  Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate, the industry’s growth rate is less than expected, and industry competition is intensifying.

Relatively high level of liquidity reverse repurchase absent for 11 consecutive days

Relatively high level of liquidity reverse repurchase absent for 11 consecutive days

Relatively high level of liquidity reverse repurchase absent from this reporter for 11 consecutive days?

Su Shiyu?

    On April 3, the People’s Bank of China announced that the liquidity of the existing banking system was at a relatively high level, and no reverse repo operation was carried out on that day.

Since March 20, the People’s Bank of China has suspended reverse repurchase operations for 11 consecutive business days.

  Regarding the reasons for the temporary suspension of the reverse repurchase, Wang Qingye, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that the reason why recent progress has continued to suspend reverse repurchase operations in the open market depends only on the currentThe fluctuation range of market interest rates is still within the long-term policy objectives, and the funds as a whole have changed rather than a reasonable and sufficient state.

At the same time, this move in advance also helps prevent market participants from forming an illusion of liquidity.

The market interest rate has continued to be lower than the policy-guided interest rate for some time later, and some financial institutions may form loose unilateral liquidity expectations and relax liquidity risk management.

  Huang Zhilong, director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of Suning Financial Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the temporary suspension of reverse repurchase has always been an early loose monetary policy, releasing liquidity, and recovering liquidity by suspending reverse repurchase is also a reasonable strategy.

In addition, according to the recent budget, the amount of funds due in the open market in advance is not large, and the need for long-term reverse repurchase operations is not great.

At present, the long-term monetary policy will be mainly stable, and at the same time, it will quickly track the current economic situation. It is necessary to ensure a reasonable and sufficient liquidity and prevent “flooding floods”.

  Cao Xiao, director of the Quantitative Finance Research Center of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told a reporter from Securities Daily that 北京夜网 the recent decline in interest rates in the currency market is a gradual step back from the repurchase suspension. Due to the overall loosening of monetary policy, the market ‘s short-term liquidity is abundant and market interest ratesThe term structure is also appropriate and reasonable, and it is prudent and appropriate to gradually suspend liquidity investment without adopting the general principle of a “flood flood” policy.

  Cao Xiao said that at present, the transition has adopted the camera alternative operation strategy in the operation of monetary policy, and will continue to suspend reverse repurchase, mainly the overall situation of market interest rates and liquidity. From the current point of view, the reverse reversal has been ruled out.As a result of the termination of hedging by MLF and MLF, as long as the market interest rate does not increase, the reverse repurchase will gradually be suspended.

The reason is that for the purpose of reducing monetary policy and reducing the financing cost of the real economy, the role of open market operations is limited, and the role of gradual reduction of quasi interest rate reduction is more significant. Open market operations can only play a role on the basis of reserve ratios and benchmark interest rates.
  Wang Qing believes that, given the inertia of the liquidity recovery at the beginning of the month, it is possible to gradually suspend reverse repurchase in the short term.

However, on April 17th, 366.5 billion MLF will be terminated, and it overlaps with the peak of the tax period of the current month.

With the current downward pressure on the macro-economy and ample market liquidity, the urgency of gradual reductions in April has declined.

But if the March financial data released next week is weak, at least it may still implement the RRR cut within the month.