Tongwei (600438) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments： Consolidating Cost Advantages Fully Released Capacity in 2019
Tongwei (600438) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments: Consolidating Cost Advantages Fully Released Capacity in 2019
This report reads: Tongwei Co., Ltd., relying on the leading cost advantage of silicon materials and cells, actively expands production capacity and increases market share. In 2019, it will fully enjoy the profit growth brought by the release of capacity and maintain an “overweight” rating. Investment Highlights: Maintain “Overweight” rating.Increase EPS forecast for 2019-20 to 0.78 (+0.01) / 1.00 (+0.08) Yuan, plus EPS1 in 2021.The forecast of 21 yuan, the 合肥夜网 reason for raising the profit forecast is that we are more confident in the profitability of the battery change, and raised the target price to 19.50 yuan (+7.95), corresponding to 25 times PE in 2019, the increase is mainly due to the upward adjustment of the estimated center of the photovoltaic sector. Tongwei disclosed the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report. In 2018, it realized revenue of 27.5 billion yuan and net profit of 2 billion yuan. In the first quarter of 2019, it realized revenue of 6.2 billion yuan and net profit4.9.1 billion. The 2018 annual report and 2019 Q1 results are in line with expectations.Sales of silicon materials in 2018.92 For the first time, Yongxiang achieved a profit of 5.1.6 billion; battery chip sales 6.4GW, realized profit 8.42 megabytes, with a total net profit of about 15 重庆耍耍网 megabytes expected for other photovoltaic sectors; the agricultural sector contributes about 5 megabytes of net profit, for a total of 20 megabytes.It is expected that in the first quarter of 2019, it will be expanded to 9,000 tons, and Yongxiang will achieve a profit of about 100 million; battery chips will achieve a profit of about 400 million, and a small amount of investment in agriculture. Consolidate the cost advantage, and start to enter the stage of the full release of production profit in 2019.The four major Tongwei projects will enter the stage of full capacity release in 2019, forming 8 silicon silicon raw material capacity + 12GW cell capacity, and the overall profit level will reach a new level.It is expected that by 2019, silicon materials will reach the expected maximum of 7 (5 inches is replaced by new capacity cost), and the cell displacement is expected to exceed 12GW (of which all the single crystals have significant profitability per PERC capacity), while expanding and expanding 8GW cell capacity.At present, Tongwei has a significant cost advantage. In the field of silicon materials, the old production capacity has reached 5 and the production cost has reached 5.5 million / ton; non-silicon cost of the cell is about 0.25 yuan / w.At present, the price of silicon materials has bottomed out, and it is expected to rebound slightly. The battery chip connection will obtain excess benefits based on efficiency and cost advantages. risk warning.The photovoltaic industry has risks such as exchange rate changes and overseas trade protection.